SIM19 · TOC 分销 / 库存集中，按销补货SIM19 · TOC distribution / Centralize stock, replenish to sales
同样两周同样的货，为什么热销店断货、慢销店爆仓？Same two weeks, same stock—why is one store empty and the other overflowing?
旧预测把整车货均分到两家店：慢销店越堆越高，热销店却卖空。切到按销补货后，门店只留小缓冲，区域仓每天按昨日实销量补回，把能共享的库存留在上游应对波动。The old forecast splits full truckloads evenly: slow Store A piles up stock while fast Store B sells out. Sales-driven replenishment leaves a small buffer at each store and replaces yesterday's actual sales daily, keeping pooled stock upstream where it can absorb variation.
🎬 同一组 14 天需求：看货压在哪、缺货发生在哪🎬 Same 14-day demand trace: see where stock piles up and where sales are lost
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有货成交Sale filled门店压货Store overstock缺货丢单Stockout / lost sale上游共享库存Pooled upstream stock
分销方式Distribution policy
💡 跑完看数据：库存放对位置，断货和压货一起降💡 Run it, then read the numbers: place stock correctly and cut both shortages and excess
均为每日收货、销售后的期末库存平均Average end-of-day stock after receipts and sales| 方式Policy | B 店缺货天数B stockout days | B 店丢单B lost sales | A 平均库存A avg stock | B 平均库存B avg stock | A 期末库存A ending stock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 整车压货Forecast push | — | — | — | — | — |
| 按销补货Sales pull | — | — | — | — | — |
推动：两店期初各 5 件，第 1 天各收 23、第 8 天各收 22。拉动：A 店目标 6、B 店目标 14，每天早上收到前一天实销量，区域仓按发货量向工厂补。Push: both stores start with five, then each receives 23 on day 1 and 22 on day 8. Pull: Store A targets six and Store B fourteen; each morning they receive the prior day's actual sales, while the regional warehouse replenishes what it shipped.
🎯 分销规则🎯 Distribution rule
库存放得越靠上游，越能吃掉单店需求波动。The farther upstream stock is pooled, the more store-level variation it can absorb.
⚠ 常见误区⚠ Common mistakes
✗ 多压货就是多卖货✗ More stock pushed out means more sales
✓ 货压错了店，一边断货一边爆仓，两头都丢钱。✓ Put stock in the wrong store and one side sells out while the other overflows.
✗ 预测做准一点就好了✗ A more accurate forecast will fix it
✓ 单店需求永远比总量抖得凶；与其赌预测，不如把库存留在上游按实销拉。✓ Store demand is noisier than the aggregate. Pool stock upstream and pull to actual sales instead of betting on allocation forecasts.