SIM10 · 供应链 / 需求信号逐层放大SIM10 · Supply chain / Demand amplification by echelon
客户每周只多要一件，工厂为什么多造几十件？——牛鞭效应Why does one extra customer order trigger dozens at the factory?
客户需求只从每周 4 件升到 5 件。订单信息每过一层晚一周，货物也要一周才到。逐周盯住白色订单向左、发货车辆向右：真正甩起“鞭梢”的，是每一层看到变化后采用的补货规则。Customer demand rises from only four to five units per week. Orders take a week to move upstream, and shipments take another week to arrive. Follow white orders moving left and trucks moving right: the replenishment rule at each echelon—not the customer—cracks the whip.
🎬 白色单据向左，发货车辆向右：看波动怎样逐层放大🎬 Orders move left, shipments move right: watch the oscillation grow
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订单向左Orders left发货向右Shipments right高库存High stock欠货 / 爆仓Backlog / overflow
补货规则Replenishment rule
W1W4 阶跃 4→5W4 STEP 4→5W16
💡 跑完看数据：越靠上游，订单波峰越高💡 Run it, then read the numbers: order peaks grow upstream
全部由同一周节拍模型的 stats() 计算Every value comes from the same weekly model stats()| 规则Rule | 门店峰值Retail peak | 批发峰值Wholesale peak | 区域仓峰值Regional peak | 工厂峰值Factory peak | 工厂断单周Factory zero weeks | 工厂库存峰值Factory stock peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 野蛮Reactive | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 冷静Smoothed | — | — | — | — | — | — |
野蛮补货：只看本周需求，把目标库存追到两周需求；冷静补货：看近四周平均，并扣掉已下未到的订单。需求没变，系统规则变了。Reactive replenishment chases this week's signal and a two-week stock target. Smoothed replenishment uses a four-week average and subtracts open orders. Demand is identical; only the operating rule changes.
🎯 供应链规则🎯 Supply-chain rule
牛鞭不是客户甩出来的，是补货规则甩出来的。The customer does not create the bullwhip. The replenishment rule does.
⚠ 常见误区⚠ Common mistakes
✗ 把波动怪罪给客户✗ Blame the customer for volatility
✓ 客户只动了 25%，剩下的全是链条自己放大的。✓ The customer moved only 25%; the chain amplified everything else.
✗ 降库存就是砍安全库存✗ Lower stock by cutting safety stock
✓ 不改补货规则，砍完照样先爆仓后断货。✓ Without changing the replenishment rule, the system still swings from overflow to shortage.